Imagine if you can what the agricultural industry will hold in the year 2040. This was the topic discussed at the “Tomorrow’s Ag Starts Today” conference held in Ulysses on July 12. While this particular event was focused on southwest Kansas, the idea can be applied to the rest of the state, in particular our corner of southeast Kansas.
I had the pleasure of presenting about our main crops and the genetic potential therein. I figured if we are thinking about 23 years in the future, it makes sense to consider the past 23 years. There has been considerable change in our cropping systems across the state and in southeast Kansas since 1994, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Corn acres across the state have more than doubled in the past 23 years from 2.3 million acres in 1994 to over 5 million in 2016. If you apply a linear trendline to this data, the acreage planted increased at a rate of nearly 112,000 acres per year. In southeast Kansas, the acreage has also increased from only 90,000 acres planted in 1994 to over 468,000 acres in 2016. Once again, if a linear trendline is applied the average increase is over 20,000 acres per year.
Interestingly, if the corn yield per acre is plotted, the statewide average has decreased since 1994 on average of 0.36 bushels per acre per year. It must be pointed out, however, that there are some extreme swings depending on the weather. However, in southeast Kansas, the average yield has increase on average of 0.83 bushels per acre per year. This is including the drought years of 2011 and 2012 which if they were excluded, the average would have been much higher.
Wheat acres have declined across the state from 11.9 million acres planted in 1994 to 7.5 million acres in 2017. NASS has records for winter wheat back to 1909 and since 1912, there has only been one year below this area (1957). The area in southeast Kansas has declined from 725,000 acres in 1994 to 305,000 acres in 2017. NASS only has data broken out by district since 1926 and there have been three years below the acreage this year (1942, 1943, and 2010). On average, the wheat acreage has decreased by over 122,000 acres per year across the state and by nearly 11,000 acres per year in southeast Kansas.
If you consider the wheat average yields since 1994, the statewide average has increased by 0.16 bushels per acre per year while wheat yields in southeast Kansas have increased by over 0.4 bushels per acre per year. However, with the decreasing acreage, the total bushels have decreased despite the rising average yields.
Soybeans have followed a fairly similar track as corn across the state with an increase of acres from 2.15 million acres in 1994 to over 4 million acres in 2016. Acres in southeast Kansas have only slightly increased from 600,000 acres to 774,000 acres. On average, statewide acres have increased over 94,000 acres per year while in southeast Kansas, the average increase was just over 6,000 acres per year.
Soybean yields have risen as well. Interestingly, the state average and southeast Kansas average are nearly identical. Overall, the state average yield has improved by 0.37 bushels per acre per year while in SEK, the increase is 0.38 bushels per acre per year.
The future of our major crops depends greatly on the genetic potential therein and new technologies like gene editing (CRISPR). For reference sake, 23 years ago, RoundupReady crops had not been released yet. Plant breeders will continue to focus on yield, yield protection (pest resistance), nitrogen use efficiency, and drought/heat tolerance. I like to label these traits as making it easier to farm.
However, it is my opinion, that additionally, traits that make our crops easier to market may be released in the next 23 years. For example, higher protein wheat or corn with a specific end-use may be the products available to farmers in the future. In addition, some of the new technologies may offer huge genetic potential without the stigma of being labelled GMO.